The QAFL Final Five Equation

With just one week to go in the QAFL home and away season, the final five is far from finalised. I take a look at the possibilities of what may happen by the end of this round below, and predict where each team still in contention will finish on the ladder.



They might be only four points ahead, but you would pretty much have to flip the world upside down for the Tigers to miss out on the minor premiership. Their percentage of 181.09, is 48 per cent better than the Magpies in second, meaning they would have to lose by about 200, with the Magpies needing to win by that much as well. Ain’t happening. Labrador can have a decent crack this weekend, knowing they will have a 13-day break before their first final.

Predicted finish: First


Western Magpies

One thing is certain; the Magpies are locked in to a double chance, at the bare minimum. Mathematically, Wilston Grange can leapfrog them into second place, but that’s reasonably unlikely. For that to happen, the Magpies would have to lose to UQ, Grange would have to beat Palm Beach, and in the process, gain 12 percentage points. Second spot is definitely the Magpies’ to lose

Predicted finish: Second


Wilston Grange

A week ago, I don’t know if Grange would have expected to be defending third spot on the ladder heading into round 18, but here they are. While second place is enticing, what they have to worry about more, is avoiding an elimination final. If they win this weekend, a double chance is guaranteed, but, if they can’t beat Palm Beach, and Morningside beat Surfers Paradise, they will slip back to forth spot, and have to play off against either Palm Beach or Broadbeach in a do or die game.

Predicted finish: Third



Last week’s loss to Broadbeach could prove very costly in the scheme of things. It dropped the Panthers to fourth spot, now a game behind Wilston Grange in third. What’s in their favour, is a 35 per cent advantage over the Gorillas. This means if they win this week against Surfers Paradise, and Wilston Grange get beaten by Palm Beach, they are back in third, and back with a double chance.

Predicted finish: Fourth


Palm Beach Currumbin

Here’s where it gets really interesting. Palm Beach has been in the top five since the end of round 8. In their last five games of the year, they have only had to win one game to ensure their finals spot, but haven’t been able to do that yet. Now, fifth spot is under a lot of heat from Broadbeach after they upset Morningside last round. If they can beat Wilston Grange this week, they make finals; it’s that simple. However, if they can’t, and Broadbeach get over the top of Sandgate as expected, with only a .3 per cent differential between the teams, Palm Beach’s year will be done.

Predicated finish: Sixth



Three weeks ago, they were pretty much cooked; now, it’s all in front of the Cats. If results go as expected, they will play finals this year, but first they need to worry about winning. They take on Sandgate this Saturday, so as stated above, if they win, Palm Beach lose, and they can reverse a 0.3 per cent difference, their season is alive. It’s going to be a big weekend!

Predicted finish: Fifth

By Andrew Wiles@andrewjwiles

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