By Chris ‘Yeendy’ Yeend
We head into the final round of the 2023 QAFL Senior Men’s Home and Away season in what looms as the most complicated round of the weekend with just three of the 12 positions on the ladder locked in before a ball is bounced.
Aspley was officially crowned the Minor Premiers of the 2023 season with its win over Redland Victoria Point at Graham Road last week; Sherwood will finish on the bottom of the ladder and it takes on Wilston Grange who will finish fifth, regardless of the result between the pair.
The top six can be solved easily if Redland Victoria Point defeats Morningside and Labrador defeats Broadbeach (a big chance at home).
As it stands, four teams will make the play for sixth position with Palm Beach Currumbin perhaps the front-runner heading into this weekend based on form, while if Morningside can come away with the four points and its opponents last week does the same, Broadbeach move into second position.
This has been a nightmare to dissect each game and the possible outcome, but a good one because finals is just around the corner and neutral fans love a little bit of unpredictability at this time of year.
The clash between Noosa and Maroochydore will be the first game between two teams that have not made any changes from the previous week. Prior to this weekend, no fewer than three occasions had any team remained unchanged from the previous week.
Broadbeach wish to congratulate youngster Leo Lombardo who will make his VFL debut for Gold Coast this weekend. Leo has had a remarkable season as part of the Under 18s Allies squad and playing Senior football for Broadbeach this year.
NOOSA v MAROOCHYDORE
Noosa
Key ins – none
Key outs – none
For the first time this year this team will have no changes.
Maroochydore
Key ins – none
Key outs – none
Winning form is good form and the Roos remain confident that its starting 22 that defeated Mt Gravatt last week will be ready and able to defeat Noosa for a potential place in the QAFL Senior Men’s finals.
Summary
Noosa is a better side than what results have shown this year and it remains a red-hot chance to steal the show on its home deck while derailing any plans Maroochydore had of possibly playing finals. This group almost beat Surfers Paradise on the road last week, a team that is one of the sleeping giants of the competition.
It’s all or nothing for Maroochydore and with some good winning form heading into this clash, may just have the edge. The two met late last season with so much riding on the result, and the game produced a draw that would ultimately suit Noosa in making a maiden finals appearance.
Outcome of match
The stars have aligned that this match will play a key role in who makes finals. This possibility has been on the cards for more than a month, especially on the back of Maroochydore’s draw and momentum in the back end of the season.
When it became clear that it was unlikely Noosa could make finals, this game was stamped as a mini-final.
If Maroochydore wins, it must rely on Mt Gravatt beating Palm Beach Currumbin to open the door. The irony is, it needed to beat Mt Gravatt to keep its finals hopes alive and now needs them to lose to do the same. If Labrador beats Broadbeach, Maroochydore miss finals regardless of the result and likewise, if PBC wins. Should PBC and Labrador lose but Morningside beats Broadbeach, Maroochydore finish on the same amount of points as Morningside but make it into the finals on percentage.
SHERWOOD v WILSTON GRANGE
Sherwood
Key ins – John Baker, Riley Greene (VFL), Ryan Gilder
Key outs – Julian Cruice, Morgan Smith, Michael Westerhuis
The Pies welcome back John Baker. He was one of the best players for the team in the Round 3 meeting between the pair. Ryan Gilder is a handy addition while Riley Greene is fresh off a gruelling encounter for the Brisbane Lions VFL team that went down to Williamstown by six-points last week in one of the games of the season.
Wilston Grange
Key ins – Fergus McFadyen, Jake Fazldeen, Zach Westerberg, Joel Budarick
Key outs – Max Hewett, Jackson Gordon, Nash Stevenson, Bailey Gordon (VFL)
The Gorillas regain a few young guns with McFayden (1 goal and in best) and Fazldeen (1 goal) returning from Under 17 Queensland representative duties against Victoria Country. Joel Budarick and Westerberg are big ins.
Summary
Wilston Grange played one of its best games of the season to beat Labrador last week but as rarely been able to string strong back-to-back performances across the season.
The reality is finals start now for this team and to head into a likely Elimination final at Surfers Paradise in week one on the back of two really solid outings especially after kicking two goals against the Demons on July 8.
Sherwood kicked 10 goals last week and will make this a genuine fight. It will come out strong and play for pride from the opening bounce.
If Wilston Grange wants to make a statement that it is a contender this year, it must play its best brand of football in this contest to go in with some solid form in a likely meeting with Surfers Paradise in week one of the finals.
Outcome of match
This is the only game on the card where the result won’t impact the ladder.
REDLAND VICTORIA POINT v MORNINGSIDE
Redland Victoria Point
Key ins – Matt Hammelmann, Mitch Stallard, Caleb Franks, William Johnson
Key outs – Justin Currie, Tom Matthews, James Rayner, Mitch Black
The Sharks will look to return to the winners’ list this weekend by recalling star forward Matt Hammelmann, key defender Stallard, gun onballer Caleb Franks and wingman Will Johnson. Tom Matthews misses his first game of the season.
Morningside
Key ins – Mitch Robinson, Daniel Frame, Charlie Cole, Keegan Downie
Key outs – Tommy Horne, Hugo Crawford, Adam Peak, Caleb Hammond
It’s all or nothing for the Panthers who have recalled key stars Mitch Robinson and Keegan Downie into the team.
Summary
This is one of the more challenging matches to predict this weekend. Morningside will throw everything it has to keep its slim finals’ potential alive, and Redland Victoria Point comes in on the back of a big loss to Aspley.
Expect this to be a hotly contested game and the Sharks to be challenged until the final siren in a must-see contest.
Outcome of match
This is one of the biggest matches of the weekend with a lot of variables hanging on the outcome. If Redland Victoria Point wins, second spot is theirs and a match with Aspley at Graham Road for a place in the Grand Final is on the cards.
If Morningside wins; where do we begin?
– Broadbeach moves to second on the ladder if it beats Labrador. If Labrador wins, Broadbeach finishes third.
– Can make finals if Broadbeach beats Labrador, Mt Gravatt beats Palm Beach Currumbin, and Noosa beats Maroochydore. All three results must happen.
Likely scenario on form only is if Morningside wins, it will finish ahead of Labrador on the ladder but behind PBC and Maroochydore.
LABRADOR v BROADBEACH
Labrador
Key ins – Jed Riddle, William Derrington, Sam Mercer, Darcy McEldrew, Matthew Hoy
Key outs – Joshua Deacon, Ben Hughes, Campbell Lake, Josh Young, Matt Cecchin
It’s all or nothing for the Southern Tigers with five changes made from the team that lost to Wilston Grange last week. Darcy McEldrew is a major inclusion and is a star in the ruck while losing vice-captain Matt Cecchin is massive, especially after having a brilliant run of form in recent weeks.
Broadbeach
Key ins – Brad Lowe, Sam Banks-Smith, Josh Zanker-Close
Key outs – Ben O’Brien, Ben Major and Nick Jasper (all omitted)
Summary
This is going to be one of the more intriguing matches of the weekend. Labrador was simply awesome at home two weeks ago against Aspley in a remarkable victory but then fell away in the third quarter against Wilston Grange in a seven-goal defeat.
Broadbeach just continues to impress and set a high standard that makes it one of the premier teams in the competition and that was again on display as it threatened to derail all finals aspirations for the Panthers.
This is a tough one to tip because Labrador did play more aggressive football and staying that fraction of a step ahead against Aspley to play its best football of the season. It looked like a premiership contender. At home, it’s going to be a better position to taste victory.
With everything on the line in this game, Labrador will need to deliver its best, while at the same time, Broadbeach is still hoping for a double chance and needs last week’s opposition to turn its form around to beat the Sharks.
Broadbeach to win here but it will go down to the wire.
Outcome of match
If Labrador wins, it makes finals. However, if it does win and the winning margin of Palm Beach Currumbin makes up the difference of 2.35%, then it doesn’t make finals. If Broadbeach wins and Redland Victoria Point loses to Morningside, Broadbeach moves to second on the ladder and takes on Aspley for a spot in the Grand Final. If RVP wins, Broadbeach finish third and will either host Morningside, PBC or Maroochydore. If Labrador does win, the pair will come back next week to do it all again, except at Subaru Oval.
ASPLEY v SURFERS PARADISE
Aspley
Key ins – Matt Payne, Lachlan Sherwood, Jackson Allen
Key outs – Macauley Lonergan, Lachlan Rayner, Will Wolbers
The Hornets made three changes from the team that accounted for the Sharks in the battle for the minor premiership. Matt Payne is a big in for his second game of the season and star defender Jackson Allen is a major return. Will Wolbers is a big out.
Surfers Paradise
Key ins – Alex Mitchell, Zai Millane (U17s), Tom Rundle
Key outs – Matt Doran (VFL), Tom Smith, John Boxer,
The Demons welcome back Zai Millane fresh from Under 17s duties last weekend in the clash against Vic Country where he was one of the best players on the ground. Matt Doran returns to Southport in the VFL for its final clash with the season as it takes on Collingwood and while Tom Smith is a big loss, Alex Mitchell returns. He kicked three goals after coming into the team as an emergency against Morningside. Mitchell is no stranger to kicking goals with two bags of six to his name in 2022.
Summary
Aspley displayed some remarkable touch against premiership threat Redland Victoria Point last week. It was superb in the second half with Connor Stackleberg unstoppable against an elite backline finishing with six goals. The rest of the competition is well and truly on notice. Do we read much into the Round 19 loss against Labrador? Perhaps not, but it was a fraction of a step behind the opposition for a lot of the game and it was a step forward against the Sharks in its next clash and should it continue to show that intensity, it will take some beating.
Surfers Paradise is a big chance here and if you’re a bit plucky, this could be a preview of the 2023 Senior QAFL Grand Final. The Dees turned some heads after the first month of the season under new coach Matt Lappin and while RVP, Aspley and Broadbeach dominated headlines as the threats to the title for much of the season, this group has been going under the radar and firms as your genuine smoky for the cup. Results show it and its worst loss for the season was to the Cats by four goals back in Round 5 and has only dropped two games since then (RVP by 20-points and PBC by 6-points).
This is the first meeting between the pair all season and if it indeed serves as an appetiser for the season finale, we will get a fair idea of where both are placed heading into finals. Aspley might just turn on a show by getting out of the gates early and then winning by five-goals.
Outcome of match
Aspley will be minor premiers this season; win, lose or draw. If Surfers Paradise wins, it will move to third position on the ladder if Labrador defeats Broadbeach ultimately setting up a potential Elimination Final against Labrador in week one of the finals. Otherwise, we are likely to see Surfers Paradise v Wilston Grange in week one of finals.
MT GRAVATT v PALM BEACH CURRUMBIN
Mt Gravatt
Key ins – Heath Seadon, Wyatt Greenaway
Key outs – Dylan Smith, Benjamin Costa
Heath Seadon will make his Senior debut. Heath played for the Gold Coast Suns Academy Boys last year, played Colts, Reserves and two games in the Under 16s. This year he has been a stand-out in the Colts competition with 26 goals and has been in fine form in the Reserves. He comes in for star goal kicker Dylan Smith.
Palm Beach Currumbin
Key ins – Jack Granville, Christian Buykx-Smith, Tyler Cornish
Key outs – Zac Nussey, Corey Joyce (VFL), Luca Gisonda
With a place in the finals on the line, the Lions welcome back three big names with Granville, Buykx-Smith and Cornish all returning to add quality to the forward line and midfield. Losing Corey Joyce to Southport in the VFL hurts but should this team play beyond this week, he will be a great asset to the squad in the backline.
Summary
If you’re going on form, Palm Beach Currumbin will be very difficult to beat. Mt Gravatt played exceptionally well in parts of its clash with Maroochydore last week before fading in the second half. By extension, PBC played a tremendous second half against Sherwood, putting on 144 points, their highest tally of the season.
Mt Gravatt is -9 across its matches at home which has been inflated by a combined losing margin of 78 points in its last two matches at this venue. It had a 4-2 record at the venue including big wins over Noosa and Broadbeach prior to the heavy losses to Morningside and Maroochydore, so, for the most part, it’s not an easy ground to win at. Labrador kicked 149 points at this venue to Mt Gravatt’s 101 in the only game this season where both teams scored triple figures.
PBC come into this game on the back of its highest score of the season and it’s a ground that teams can score well on if they get a run on. This is a mini-final for the visitors and the home team will want to send the fans home happy after a season that delivered potential but couldn’t quite fulfil it.
PBC will win here and likely advance to the finals.
Outcome of match
This is one of four matches this weekend that determine who will finish in sixth position. IF Mt Gravatt wins; Palm Beach Currumbin will not make finals. IF Palm Beach Currumbin wins; it will make finals if Labrador loses to Broadbeach or it makes up the difference of 2.35% ahead of Labrador’s winning margin in order to secure a place in the six.
LADDER
1 – ASPLEY (58 – 183.49%)
2 – RVP (52 – 153.43%)
3 – BROADBEACH (50 – 141.10%)
4 – SURFERS PARADISE (48 – 124.46%)
5 – WILSTON GRANGE (40 – 104.99%)
6 – LABRADOR (30 – 87.60%)
7 – Palm Beach Currumbin (30 – 85.26)
8 – Maroochydore (28 – 104.40)
9 – Morningside (28 – 86.28%)
10 – Mt Gravatt (20 – 79.01%)
11 – Noosa (20 – 76.99%)
12 – Sherwood (4 – 50.65%)
Predicted Ladder after Round 21
1 – ASPLEY (62)
2 – REDLAND VICTORIA POINT (56)
3 – BROADBEACH (54)
4 – SURFERS PARADISE (48)
5 – WILSTON GRANGE (44)
6 – PALM BEACH CURRUMBIN (34)
7 – Maroochydore (32)
8 – Labrador (30)
9 – Morningside (28)
10 – Mt Gravatt (20)
11 – Noosa (20)
12 – Sherwood (4)
