Friday Forecast: Round 17

Morningside vs. Western Magpies
Saturday August 13, 2:00pm, Jack Esplen Oval

There is a lot on the line for both teams this week, but their sights are set on different prizes.

I’m not going to say it’s impossible, but if Morningside don’t win this game, and Surfers beat Mt Gravatt, it’s going to be very, VERY difficult to make the five.

If the Panthers win the last two, and Surfer drop one, Morningside make it.

For the Magpies, they are still a mathematical chance of top spot. It’s a long shot, but with a handy percentage boost, it’s possible.

Both won’t be putting too much time into next week just yet though, because they have got a cracker ahead of them.

Last time they met, Morningside decimated the Magpies.

It was the last time the black and white looked flat. There has been a lot of water gone under the bridge since then, but the Panthers have to draw from that win. They dominated the middle and their key forwards got off the chain.

Russ and Dalton will be better for the run last week after an extended absence, and Dale slots back into full back after a best on ground performance last time he was in the red white and black for the Panthers.

When you talk about inclusions though, they don’t come much bigger in the QAFL than former Brisbane Lion Jordon Bourke, who is returning from injury through the QAFL before heading back to Aspley. He is also joined by Saunders from Redland.

Contested ball is king in this one; there are no two ways about it.
Both have played a similar brand of footy when up and about this year. Strong over the ball, link up from behind, isolate the big forwards.

If one team can restrict the opposition run by taking the corridor away, they will be in the box seat.

Both forward lines are capable of kicking a massive score, so it’s about restricting the way it goes in.

Where it will be one: Defensive set ups

Screen Shot 2016-08-12 at 12.04.57 PM


Broadbeach vs. Labrador
Saturday August 13, 2:00pm, Ord Minnett Oval

The giant killers have another in their sights.

The Cats have two weeks left, and they are looking to spoil the Tigers run into the finals.

Ord Minett Oval hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for the Tigers, having not won there since 2010.

But let’s treat this one on its merit, and look at what we know about 2016.

Labrador are traveling as well as our Australian swim team at the moment; they are flying.

(Side note, how good was Kyle Chalmers back 25m yesterday!)

Sorry, back to the footy. With the Palm Beach slip up, the Tigers can now play off for top spot next week if they win tomorrow.

They are hunting in packs, have their second tier players playing major roles, and are kicking goals.

They need to put this one to bed early. If the Cats are a sniff late, they will come home with a wet sail.

Searl and Chadwick will have to be strong over the footy, coming up against the likes of Hicks, Clarke, and Thorsen.

Royes will go to the deepest forward, probably Baxter, with Dineen on the other.

The key to this will be who can use the outside better. Both teams have a very methodical approach to using their runners, so both will try and win the footy inside, before feeding a handball out wide.

The Tigers should win this one. Broadbeach couldn’t do it again…. could they?

Where it will be won: Controlling the outside

 Screen Shot 2016-08-12 at 12.04.37 PM


Surfers Paradise vs. Mt Gravatt
Saturday August 13, 2:00pm, Sir Bruce Small Park

Finals start now for Surfers Paradise.

In the final two weeks, they take on Mt Gravatt and the Magpies. If they want to be there, they are going to have to knock off at least one of them.

Last time they played, Mt Gravatt wiped the floor with them. They won the contested count, and they moved the ball in a way that didn’t allow the Demons to set up their defensive structures.

Surfers have to try and slow the Vultures down this time. It’s going to be as much about what they do without the ball than what they do with.

The Vultures need to clog up the corridor like they did against Morningside last week, and get on their bikes in transition.

Moncur’s ankle didn’t come up from last week, which hurts their forward line, and Vearing has been managed with a few bumps and bruises, but if you’re looking to replace them with capable troops, Licht and Godfrey from Redland aren’t bad candidates.

Surfers are without Matt Green, who probably would have played on Moncur, but Macansh is back in town.

If Mt Gravatt win, they can’t miss finals. This game means a lot.

Where it will be won: The runners

Screen Shot 2016-08-12 at 12.05.11 PM



Wilston Grange vs. Palm Beach Currumbin
Saturday August 13, 2:00pm, Bendigo Bank Oval

The top of the table team on the rebound is a scary proposition.

Especially when you add to the mix the return of Lys, Steve Thynne, Woolley and a few others. Look out Wilston Grange.

There is no need to hit the panic button just yet for the Lions, not a whole lot needs to change structure wise this week.

Last week, they hope, was just a lapse, an off day, and a second half they can put in the back of the memory pretty quickly.

Don’t expect to see too many risky kicks across goal this week if it’s tight…

If their short game is on early, the rest will flow on from that.

For Grange, the barometer is back. Fletcher McIvor returns from that hammy strain after a month off, and Trewhella will be back in a key post.

They have nothing to lose this weekend, and that’s the attitude they have to have.

Take a few risks, play with freedom, and have a bit of fun with it.

Are they going to win? Probably not. Can they make a good account for themselves heading into their last game? Absolutely.

If it’s on Palm Beach’s terms early, I think this will be too quick for the young Gorilla legs.

Where it will be won: Speed

Screen Shot 2016-08-12 at 12.05.27 PM



Sandgate vs. UQ
Saturday August 13, 2:00pm, Lemke Road

This might not shape the top five, but these two teams are playing for as much as anyone this week.

Let’s be honest, neither wants to say they won the wooden spoon.

The faces look very different this week though, thanks to a couple of NEAFL byes.

UQ add Dennis, Stevenson, Warren and ‘the beast,’ George Hannaford, is back from injury.

The Hawks get Stackelberg, Gribble and Cormick.

All of a sudden, both are different teams.

I’ve racked my brains trying to predict this, especially with those inclusions, but I change my mind every day.

UQ’s run will cause the Hawks a bit of trouble, but Sandgate are clearly the better inside team.

The tipping point of this game will come in the Hawks’ forward arc.

Sandgate have been wasteful going forward this year, which is where UQ set up their run from.

If the Hawks don’t hit targets, they are going to get burnt on the rebound. If they are clean, they will kick a winning score.

Might not be the top of the table clash, but it’s going to be a cracker.

Where it will be won: Going forward

Screen Shot 2016-08-12 at 12.05.39 PM

150-year fact – Queensland Football Forensics

The 2008 Pineapple Cup Grand Final, played at Broadbeach’s Merrimac Oval in front of a big crowd, saw the Western Magpies overcome a third quarter deficit in excess of forty points to pip red hot favourites Palm Beach Currumbin by three points.

A kick out of congestion from some 40 metres out by Luke Scott bounced through in the last minute of the match to put the Magpies ahead.


Match Replays

Remember, 24 hours after the game, match replays will be available to view HERE. No excuses not to be all over the ins and outs of the QAFL in 2016.

By Andrew Wiles

Our Supporters